President Trump’s decisive presidential win last November will undoubtedly usher in significant changes to US Foreign Assistance in 2025 and beyond.
While it is still early days and -at the time of writing- we do not yet know who will be nominated to be Trump’s USAID Administrator, the selection of Sen. Marco Rubio as Secretary of State suggests that foreign assistance will have a significant role in Trump’s foreign policy. The first Trump Administration’s track record also offers some important clues.
Here are six trends to watch out for as the incoming administration shapes its approach to US foreign assistance:
During Trump’s first term, the Journey to Self Reliance (J2SR) was one of USAID Administrator Mark Green’s signature initiatives. J2SR focuses on building local capabilities within developing countries with the goal of ending dependence on foreign assistance. Key elements of J2SR have largely been carried forward by the Biden Administration under the guise of Localization/Local Solutions. As noted by former USAID Chief of Staff Bill Steiger, J2SR will likely continue in one form or another under the next Trump Administration.
US Foreign Assistance is spread out among more than a dozen agencies across the government. USAID delivers the bulk of that assistance to some 90 countries worldwide. As part of a broader government-wide effort to improve government efficiency, it is possible that we see a consolidation at the Agency level, perhaps folding USAID into State or having the head of State’s F Bureau serve as Administrator.
With the Trump Administration’s emphasis on America First, we are likely to see a reduction of the number of countries receiving foreign assistance to focus on those perceived to be more aligned with US interests.
Trump is likely to use executive action to pull the US -again- out of the Paris Climate Agreement. Meanwhile, irrespective of the US, the most recent rounds of climate negotiations in Dubai and Baku failed to produce significant progress. What’s more – the much-touted and long-negotiated global plastics treaty also recently collapsed.
With an anticipated drastic decline in climate-related U.S. foreign assistance, we will likely see the emergence of ‘coalitions of the willing’ – philanthropies, regional or even municipal governments, investors and corporates- working to tackle specific climate-related challenges.
4. Greater Emphasis on Partnerships and Private Sector Engagement
The previous Trump Administration greatly accelerated private sector engagement with the creation of the Agency’s first PSE Policy. More recently, the America First Policy Institute has declared partnerships as the cornerstone of any US foreign assistance. Here, we are likely to see even greater focus on building collaborations that engage and support the role of the private sector as a linchpin development actor. Expect a greater focus on the US Development Finance Corporation (USDFC) as a key tool for engaging the private sector in delivering development outcomes.
5. Building on Women’s Economic Empowerment
One less noticed success of the first Trump Administration was its efforts to foster Women’s Economic Empowerment through initiatives such as W-GDP. W-GDP launched some ground-breaking partnerships such as the Investing in Women in Global Supply Chains partnership between USAID and PepsiCo, which in turn served as a cornerstone for the Biden Administration’s WISE initiative.
Given the success of these initiatives to date and the keen bipartisan support for women’s empowerment, the Trump Administration may choose to build upon and expand these efforts.
6. Renewed Focus on Latin America
The first Trump Administration placed significant emphasis on Latin America- specifically vis a vis the continuing crisis in Venezuela. Through innovative programs such as the Juntos Es Mejor initiative, USAID and IDB reached more than half a million people impacted by the crisis across the region.
Meanwhile, China has been expanding its influence in the region. Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio has long focused on Latin America and, given the importance of regional cooperation in reducing illegal immigration, we can expect renewed focus and engagement in Latin America.
These six potential trends may represent far more incremental change than some are advocating for. However, President-elect Trump will come into office later this month facing multiple crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with a razor-thin and fractious majority in the House of Representatives. With a full ‘inbox’ and a fluid situation in the Congress, it appears unlikely that the new Administration will prioritize expending the political capital required to achieve more comprehensive reforms to US foreign assistance. Instead, depending on who is selected USAID Administrator, the Trump Administration may simply build on its first administration efforts while also consolidating current US foreign assistance programs to increase focus on advancing US interests.